At 5.30pm on Tuesday 7 March 2023, Bettina Renz takes an in-depth look at why the West overestimated Russian military capabilities. The lecture will be live-streamed online via Crowdcast. This lecture will be hosted by Lancaster University’s Centre for War and Diplomacy and the RAF Museum.

This free lecture is part of the RAF Museum's Research Lecture Programme. If you'd like to support the RAF Museum, you can make a donation at: https://support.rafmuseum.org/Donate-Now.

US and UK intelligence agencies accurately predicted Russia’s assault on Ukraine on 24th February 2022. Expectations about how the Kremlin’s troops would perform were less exact. Many in the West had expected a quick and decisive victory, based on the assumption of numerically and technologically superior Russian armed forces. Instead, the world witnessed blunder after blunder as ill-prepared and ill-equipped troops attempted a disastrous push towards Kyiv. The lecture will take an in-depth look at the reasons why the West overestimated Russian military capabilities. Practical approaches to military analysis, which tend to overemphasise material assets, are only one factor. Western narratives about contemporary Russia and the complexity of strategy also need to be taken into account if more accurate future forecasts are to be achieved.

Bettina Renz is a Professor of International Security at the University of Nottingham’s School of Politics and International Relations. She completed her a PhD in Russian and East European Studies at the University of Birmingham. Her research expertise is Russian defence and security policy with a particular interest in military modernisation. She has published widely on the subject, including her latest monograph, Russia’s Military Revival, which appeared with Polity in 2018. Before her appointment at Nottingham, Professor Renz worked as a lecturer in airpower studies for King’s College London at the RAF College, Cranwell. She was also a distinguished visiting professor at the Canadian Forces College in Toronto in 2020.

Why did the West overestimate Russian military capabilities and why does this matter?