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Earth system scientists have identified nine planetary boundaries whose transgression risks catastrophic consequences for nature and humanity, and recent estimates suggest six have already been crossed. However, their definition and proposed responses have mostly neglected economics. This lecture offers a quantitative economic assessment of global and local policies to respect planetary boundaries and distils seven lessons for future research.

In a series of highly cited papers, earth system scientists have identified a set of nine planetary boundaries that must not be breached if we wish to avoid catastrophic consequences for nature and humanity. These range from well-mixed, global boundaries, such as climate-altering atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, to localized limits on freshwater availability and reactive nitrogen entering the environment. Recent estimates suggest that six of the nine planetary boundaries have already been breached. However, the establishment of these boundaries and the analysis of potential solutions have often been devoid of economic considerations. Furthermore, in the case of several of these planetary boundaries, limited attention has been given to economic policies that might allow society to address them, as well as the likely synergies and trade offs across economic policies targeted at individual objectives. This presentation aims to bring further economic analysis to bear on the quantitative assessment of global and local economic policies aimed at respecting these planetary boundaries, concluding with seven lessons to inform future research on this topic. 

Professor Hertel is Distinguished Professor Emeritus and Research Professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, where he also serves as Executive Director of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). His research focuses on the global impact of trade, climate and environmental policies. In 2022, he was awarded an Alexander von Humboldt Research Prize which supported his 2022 sabbatical at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Research (PIK). In 2013 he was awarded the inaugural Purdue University Research and Scholarship Distinction Award for outstanding accomplishments in the Social Sciences and/or Humanities.

Dr. Hertel is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). He is also Distinguished Fellow, and Past-President, of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA), a Fellow of the Australasian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society (AARES) and an Honorary Lifetime Member (aka Fellow) of the International Agricultural Economics Association (IAAE). In 1992, Professor Hertel founded the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) which now encompasses more than 35,000 researchers in 175 countries around the world (https://www.gtap.org). This Project maintains a global economic database and an applied general equilibrium modelling framework which are documented in the book: Global Trade Analysis: Modelling and Applications, edited by Dr. Hertel, and published by Cambridge University Press in 1997. This book was named the 'Publication of Enduring Quality' by the AAEA in 2016. In 2016, Profs. Hertel and Winchester founded the Journal of Global Economic Analysis, dedicated to advancing the science behind applied general equilibrium analysis of global economic issues: http://jgea.org

Professor Hertel’s most recent research has focused on food and environmental security and the impacts of climate change and mitigation policies on global sustainability, trade, land use and poverty. In order to further advance this work, he established the Purdue-based project, GLASS: Global to Local Analysis of Systems Sustainability in 2017 https://glassnet.net which has since given rise to GLASSNET, an NSF-funded project aimed at building a network of networks (including GTAP, among others) focusing on sustainable use of the world's land and water resources.

'Economic analysis of global & local policies for respecting planetary boundaries' - Prof T Hertel